Lesson 6 of 104:002 Sources
Win rate vs expectancy
Recorded. Publishing soon
Educational content, not investment advice. Nour explains how markets work. She never tells you what to buy or sell.
Win rate tells you how often you win; expectancy tells you what you make or lose per trade on average.
- Expectancy = (win% × average win) − (loss% × average loss). MT5's tester shows a similar 'Expected Payoff'.
- Trader A: 80% wins, $10 avg win, $50 avg loss → −$2 per trade.
- Trader B: 40% wins, $30 avg win, $10 avg loss → +$6 per trade (educational example, before costs).
- Low win rates bring losing streaks: at 60% losses, 5 in a row ≈ 8% for any 5 trades. Judge after dozens of trades, net of costs.
Quick check
Three questions. Pick an answer to see why.
1.80% win rate, $10 average win, $50 average loss. Expectancy per trade?
2.What does expectancy combine?
3.When can you fairly judge a trading method?
Sources
Every fact in this lesson is backed by the sources below.
- 1.MetaQuotes — MT5 Help: Strategy Tester ReportExpected Payoff = average return of one deal; profit trades %; average profit/loss trade; maximum consecutive losses
- 2.CME Group Education — Controlling RiskAccount losses are inevitable; losing streaks illustrated
Educational content, not investment advice. Risk warning: trading forex, CFDs, gold and crypto carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You can lose more than you put in. Souq Daily is an education platform. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation or an offer, and past performance does not predict future results.