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Educational content, not investment advice.

Souq Dailyسوق ديليSouq Daily

Lesson 7 of 104:003 Sources

Market cycles and the Bitcoin halving

Video coming soon

Presented by NourIn Arabic, with captions. Other languages are coming.

Educational content, not investment advice. Nour explains how markets work. She never tells you what to buy or sell.

The halving is a rule built into Bitcoin: the reward for adding a block is cut in half roughly every four years, until issuance stops at 21 million coins.

  • Block reward: 50 BTC at launch, 25 (Nov 2012), 12.5 (Jul 2016), 6.25 (May 2020), 3.125 (Apr 2024).
  • Past halvings coincided with big rallies, but CME's own analysis lists reasons for scepticism; the date is known in advance.
  • Bear markets were brutal: drawdowns of roughly 93%, 83%, 82% and 70%.
  • These are historical observations, not predictions. Use them to size risk, never to time the market or borrow.

Quick check

Three questions. Pick an answer to see why.

0/3

  1. 1.What exactly does the halving cut in half?

  2. 2.What was the block reward after the April 2024 halving?

  3. 3.What is the correct way to use past halving cycles?

Sources

Every fact in this lesson is backed by the sources below.

  1. 1.Bitcoin whitepaper (Satoshi Nakamoto) – bitcoin.orgFirst transaction in a block creates new coins for the block creator; incentive can transition to fees once a predetermined number of coins is in circulation
  2. 2.bitcoin.org – Frequently Asked QuestionsNew bitcoins created each year automatically halved over time until issuance stops at 21 million
  3. 3.CME Group – Can Bitcoin Halving Emulate Searing Rallies of the Past? (Mar 2024)Reward history 50→25 (28 Nov 2012)→12.5 (9 Jul 2016)→6.25 (11 May 2020)→3.125 (Apr 2024); approximate quadrennial halving; past three halvings coincided with rallies; reasons to be sceptical; drawdowns of 93%, 83%, 82%, 70%

Educational content, not investment advice. Risk warning: trading forex, CFDs, gold and crypto carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You can lose more than you put in. Souq Daily is an education platform. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation or an offer, and past performance does not predict future results.