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Événements géopolitiques et risque : comment réagir
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No one can reliably predict geopolitical events or the market's reaction. Federal Reserve researchers built a news-based geopolitical risk index and found that higher risk foreshadows lower investment and employment.
- Shocks travel through oil (EIA lists embargoes and wars as past supply shocks), gold (risk and uncertainty) and flight to safety.
- Real example (RBA): on 9 March 2020 AUD/USD fell from 0.65 to 0.63 within minutes – about 200 pips, or $200 on a 0.1-lot trade, 20% of a $1,000 account.
- A stop price is not a guaranteed execution price (SEC).
- Plan: check exposure, trade smaller, verify news, mind weekend gaps – not trading is also a decision.
Vérification rapide
Trois questions. Choisissez une réponse pour voir pourquoi.
1.AUD/USD falls from 0.6500 to 0.6300 and you hold 0.1 lot ($1 per pip). What is the loss?
2.During a fast market, a stop-loss order…
3.Breaking news of a military escalation hits. Which response matches the lesson?
Sources
Chaque fait de cette leçon s'appuie sur les sources ci-dessous.
- 1.Federal Reserve – IFDP: Measuring Geopolitical Risk (Caldara & Iacoviello)News-based geopolitical risk index; higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment
- 2.U.S. EIA – Oil and petroleum products explained: prices and outlookGeopolitical events such as the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo and the Persian Gulf War caused major oil supply shocks
- 3.World Gold Council – Gold Return Attribution Model (gold drivers)Risk & uncertainty is one of the WGC's gold driver categories
- 4.Reserve Bank of Australia – SMP May 2020, Box B: Recent developments in FX marketsMarch 2020: demand for USD and JPY; AUD fell from US$0.65 to US$0.63 within minutes on 9 March; bid-ask spreads widened to their highest in years and market depth declined
- 5.SEC Investor.gov – Investor Bulletin: Understanding Order TypesThe stop price is not a guaranteed execution price; execution can deviate significantly from the stop price
Contenu éducatif, pas un conseil en investissement. Avertissement : le trading du forex, des CFD, de l'or et des crypto-actifs comporte un risque élevé et peut ne pas convenir à tout le monde. Vous pouvez perdre plus que votre mise. Souq Daily est une plateforme éducative. Rien ici ne constitue un conseil en investissement, une recommandation ou une offre, et les performances passées ne préjugent pas des résultats futurs.