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Inflasi (CPI) dan pengaruhnya pada mata uang dan emas

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The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. In the US it is published monthly by the BLS at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

  • Headline CPI covers everything; core CPI excludes food and energy, which are volatile.
  • Inflation moves currencies through rate expectations: hotter than expected may support the dollar; cooler may weigh on it.
  • Gold pays no interest; the WGC lists rates and the dollar as its opportunity-cost drivers, so a hot CPI can pressure gold short-term – not a fixed rule.
  • Know the date, the forecast and check core, not just headline.

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  1. 1.What does core CPI exclude?

  2. 2.Core CPI was expected at +0.2% and came in at +0.4%. What is this?

  3. 3.Why can a hot CPI print pressure gold in the short term?

Sumber

Setiap fakta dalam pelajaran ini didukung oleh sumber di bawah.

  1. 1.U.S. BLS – Handbook of Methods: Consumer Price IndexCPI definition: average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers
  2. 2.U.S. BLS – Consumer Price Index news releaseMonthly CPI release; the 'all items less food and energy' (core) index
  3. 3.U.S. BLS – Release schedule, October 2026CPI is released at 8:30 a.m. ET (e.g. Wednesday 14 October 2026)
  4. 4.Federal Reserve – Governor Cook speech, 25 March 2024 (dual mandate, 2% goal)Fed's 2% longer-run inflation goal
  5. 5.World Gold Council – Gold Return Attribution Model (gold drivers)WGC gold drivers include opportunity cost (interest rates) and opportunity cost (FX)

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