Aula 9 de 103:565 Fontes
Eventos geopolíticos e risco: como agir
Gravado. Publicação em breve
Conteúdo educativo, não é recomendação de investimento. A Nour explica como os mercados funcionam. Ela nunca diz o que comprar ou vender.
A tradução completa desta aula chega em breve. Você está lendo a versão em inglês.
No one can reliably predict geopolitical events or the market's reaction. Federal Reserve researchers built a news-based geopolitical risk index and found that higher risk foreshadows lower investment and employment.
- Shocks travel through oil (EIA lists embargoes and wars as past supply shocks), gold (risk and uncertainty) and flight to safety.
- Real example (RBA): on 9 March 2020 AUD/USD fell from 0.65 to 0.63 within minutes – about 200 pips, or $200 on a 0.1-lot trade, 20% of a $1,000 account.
- A stop price is not a guaranteed execution price (SEC).
- Plan: check exposure, trade smaller, verify news, mind weekend gaps – not trading is also a decision.
Teste rápido
Três perguntas. Escolha uma resposta para ver o porquê.
1.AUD/USD falls from 0.6500 to 0.6300 and you hold 0.1 lot ($1 per pip). What is the loss?
2.During a fast market, a stop-loss order…
3.Breaking news of a military escalation hits. Which response matches the lesson?
Fontes
Cada fato desta aula é sustentado pelas fontes abaixo.
- 1.Federal Reserve – IFDP: Measuring Geopolitical Risk (Caldara & Iacoviello)News-based geopolitical risk index; higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment
- 2.U.S. EIA – Oil and petroleum products explained: prices and outlookGeopolitical events such as the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo and the Persian Gulf War caused major oil supply shocks
- 3.World Gold Council – Gold Return Attribution Model (gold drivers)Risk & uncertainty is one of the WGC's gold driver categories
- 4.Reserve Bank of Australia – SMP May 2020, Box B: Recent developments in FX marketsMarch 2020: demand for USD and JPY; AUD fell from US$0.65 to US$0.63 within minutes on 9 March; bid-ask spreads widened to their highest in years and market depth declined
- 5.SEC Investor.gov – Investor Bulletin: Understanding Order TypesThe stop price is not a guaranteed execution price; execution can deviate significantly from the stop price
Conteúdo educativo, não é recomendação de investimento. Aviso de risco: operar forex, CFDs, ouro e cripto envolve alto risco e pode não ser adequado para todos. Você pode perder mais do que investiu. A Souq Daily é uma plataforma educacional. Nada aqui é recomendação de investimento, sugestão ou oferta, e resultados passados não garantem resultados futuros.