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第 6 课 / 共 10 课4:002 出处

胜率与期望值

已录制，即将发布

主讲：Nour阿拉伯语讲解，配有字幕。更多语言即将推出。

教育内容，不构成投资建议。Nour 讲解市场如何运作，从不告诉你该买什么或卖什么。

本课的完整中文翻译即将上线，你现在看到的是英文版。

Win rate tells you how often you win; expectancy tells you what you make or lose per trade on average.

  • Expectancy = (win% × average win) − (loss% × average loss). MT5's tester shows a similar 'Expected Payoff'.
  • Trader A: 80% wins, $10 avg win, $50 avg loss → −$2 per trade.
  • Trader B: 40% wins, $30 avg win, $10 avg loss → +$6 per trade (educational example, before costs).
  • Low win rates bring losing streaks: at 60% losses, 5 in a row ≈ 8% for any 5 trades. Judge after dozens of trades, net of costs.

快速自测

三道题。选一个答案，查看原因。

0/3

  1. 1.80% win rate, $10 average win, $50 average loss. Expectancy per trade?

  2. 2.What does expectancy combine?

  3. 3.When can you fairly judge a trading method?

出处

本课中的每个事实都有以下出处支撑。

  1. 1.MetaQuotes — MT5 Help: Strategy Tester ReportExpected Payoff = average return of one deal; profit trades %; average profit/loss trade; maximum consecutive losses
  2. 2.CME Group Education — Controlling RiskAccount losses are inevitable; losing streaks illustrated

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