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第 7 课 / 共 10 课4:003 出处

市场周期与比特币减半

视频即将上线

主讲：Nour阿拉伯语讲解，配有字幕。更多语言即将推出。

教育内容，不构成投资建议。Nour 讲解市场如何运作，从不告诉你该买什么或卖什么。

本课的完整中文翻译即将上线，你现在看到的是英文版。

The halving is a rule built into Bitcoin: the reward for adding a block is cut in half roughly every four years, until issuance stops at 21 million coins.

  • Block reward: 50 BTC at launch, 25 (Nov 2012), 12.5 (Jul 2016), 6.25 (May 2020), 3.125 (Apr 2024).
  • Past halvings coincided with big rallies, but CME's own analysis lists reasons for scepticism; the date is known in advance.
  • Bear markets were brutal: drawdowns of roughly 93%, 83%, 82% and 70%.
  • These are historical observations, not predictions. Use them to size risk, never to time the market or borrow.

快速自测

三道题。选一个答案，查看原因。

0/3

  1. 1.What exactly does the halving cut in half?

  2. 2.What was the block reward after the April 2024 halving?

  3. 3.What is the correct way to use past halving cycles?

出处

本课中的每个事实都有以下出处支撑。

  1. 1.Bitcoin whitepaper (Satoshi Nakamoto) – bitcoin.orgFirst transaction in a block creates new coins for the block creator; incentive can transition to fees once a predetermined number of coins is in circulation
  2. 2.bitcoin.org – Frequently Asked QuestionsNew bitcoins created each year automatically halved over time until issuance stops at 21 million
  3. 3.CME Group – Can Bitcoin Halving Emulate Searing Rallies of the Past? (Mar 2024)Reward history 50→25 (28 Nov 2012)→12.5 (9 Jul 2016)→6.25 (11 May 2020)→3.125 (Apr 2024); approximate quadrennial halving; past three halvings coincided with rallies; reasons to be sceptical; drawdowns of 93%, 83%, 82%, 70%

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