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Educational content, not investment advice.

Souq Dailyسوق ديليSouq Daily

Lesson 8 of 104:015 Sources

Oil and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NOK)

Recorded. Publishing soon

Presented by NourIn Arabic, with captions. Other languages are coming.

Educational content, not investment advice. Nour explains how markets work. She never tells you what to buy or sell.

Per the EIA, crude prices are driven by global supply and demand: economic growth, OPEC production targets, spare capacity and inventories, geopolitical events, weather and infrastructure outages.

  • Commodity currencies move with their terms of trade. The RBA says a rise in the terms of trade is generally associated with a stronger AUD (iron ore, natural gas, farm goods).
  • Canada: US imports of Canadian crude hit records in 2024; Bank of Canada research finds commodity prices help explain CAD moves.
  • Norway: crude oil and gas were 57% of goods exports in 2025.
  • The link isn't mechanical: rates, the dollar and risk sentiment can dominate.

Quick check

Three questions. Pick an answer to see why.

0/3

  1. 1.What share of Norway's goods exports were crude oil and natural gas in 2025?

  2. 2.Per the RBA, a rise in Australia's terms of trade is generally associated with…

  3. 3.Oil jumps 10%, but USD/CAD barely moves. Which explanation fits the lesson?

Sources

Every fact in this lesson is backed by the sources below.

  1. 1.U.S. EIA – Oil and petroleum products explained: prices and outlookCrude prices are driven by supply and demand; OPEC targets, spare capacity and inventories, geopolitical events, weather and infrastructure disruptions
  2. 2.U.S. EIA – Today in Energy: U.S. crude oil imports from CanadaUS crude imports from Canada reached record highs in 2024; nearly all crude used by Midwest and Mountain refineries comes from Canada
  3. 3.Norwegian Petroleum (Norwegian government) – Exports of oil and gasCrude oil and natural gas were 57% of the value of Norway's goods exports in 2025
  4. 4.Reserve Bank of Australia – Drivers of the Australian Dollar Exchange RateHigher terms of trade generally associated with AUD appreciation; examples iron ore, natural gas, agricultural products; AUD tends to rise with global equities
  5. 5.Bank of Canada – Staff Analytical Note 2016-2: Predictive ability of commodity prices for the Canadian dollarEnergy and non-energy commodity prices help explain CAD-USD moves; the USD multilateral factor has stronger predictive ability

Educational content, not investment advice. Risk warning: trading forex, CFDs, gold and crypto carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You can lose more than you put in. Souq Daily is an education platform. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation or an offer, and past performance does not predict future results.