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Educational content, not investment advice.

Souq Dailyسوق ديليSouq Daily

Lesson 9 of 103:565 Sources

Geopolitical events and risk: how to behave

Recorded. Publishing soon

Presented by NourIn Arabic, with captions. Other languages are coming.

Educational content, not investment advice. Nour explains how markets work. She never tells you what to buy or sell.

No one can reliably predict geopolitical events or the market's reaction. Federal Reserve researchers built a news-based geopolitical risk index and found that higher risk foreshadows lower investment and employment.

  • Shocks travel through oil (EIA lists embargoes and wars as past supply shocks), gold (risk and uncertainty) and flight to safety.
  • Real example (RBA): on 9 March 2020 AUD/USD fell from 0.65 to 0.63 within minutes – about 200 pips, or $200 on a 0.1-lot trade, 20% of a $1,000 account.
  • A stop price is not a guaranteed execution price (SEC).
  • Plan: check exposure, trade smaller, verify news, mind weekend gaps – not trading is also a decision.

Quick check

Three questions. Pick an answer to see why.

0/3

  1. 1.AUD/USD falls from 0.6500 to 0.6300 and you hold 0.1 lot ($1 per pip). What is the loss?

  2. 2.During a fast market, a stop-loss order…

  3. 3.Breaking news of a military escalation hits. Which response matches the lesson?

Sources

Every fact in this lesson is backed by the sources below.

  1. 1.Federal Reserve – IFDP: Measuring Geopolitical Risk (Caldara & Iacoviello)News-based geopolitical risk index; higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment
  2. 2.U.S. EIA – Oil and petroleum products explained: prices and outlookGeopolitical events such as the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo and the Persian Gulf War caused major oil supply shocks
  3. 3.World Gold Council – Gold Return Attribution Model (gold drivers)Risk & uncertainty is one of the WGC's gold driver categories
  4. 4.Reserve Bank of Australia – SMP May 2020, Box B: Recent developments in FX marketsMarch 2020: demand for USD and JPY; AUD fell from US$0.65 to US$0.63 within minutes on 9 March; bid-ask spreads widened to their highest in years and market depth declined
  5. 5.SEC Investor.gov – Investor Bulletin: Understanding Order TypesThe stop price is not a guaranteed execution price; execution can deviate significantly from the stop price

Educational content, not investment advice. Risk warning: trading forex, CFDs, gold and crypto carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You can lose more than you put in. Souq Daily is an education platform. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation or an offer, and past performance does not predict future results.