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Pelajaran 8 dari 104:015 Sumber

Minyak dan mata uang komoditas (CAD, AUD, NOK)

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Per the EIA, crude prices are driven by global supply and demand: economic growth, OPEC production targets, spare capacity and inventories, geopolitical events, weather and infrastructure outages.

  • Commodity currencies move with their terms of trade. The RBA says a rise in the terms of trade is generally associated with a stronger AUD (iron ore, natural gas, farm goods).
  • Canada: US imports of Canadian crude hit records in 2024; Bank of Canada research finds commodity prices help explain CAD moves.
  • Norway: crude oil and gas were 57% of goods exports in 2025.
  • The link isn't mechanical: rates, the dollar and risk sentiment can dominate.

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  1. 1.What share of Norway's goods exports were crude oil and natural gas in 2025?

  2. 2.Per the RBA, a rise in Australia's terms of trade is generally associated with…

  3. 3.Oil jumps 10%, but USD/CAD barely moves. Which explanation fits the lesson?

Sumber

Setiap fakta dalam pelajaran ini didukung oleh sumber di bawah.

  1. 1.U.S. EIA – Oil and petroleum products explained: prices and outlookCrude prices are driven by supply and demand; OPEC targets, spare capacity and inventories, geopolitical events, weather and infrastructure disruptions
  2. 2.U.S. EIA – Today in Energy: U.S. crude oil imports from CanadaUS crude imports from Canada reached record highs in 2024; nearly all crude used by Midwest and Mountain refineries comes from Canada
  3. 3.Norwegian Petroleum (Norwegian government) – Exports of oil and gasCrude oil and natural gas were 57% of the value of Norway's goods exports in 2025
  4. 4.Reserve Bank of Australia – Drivers of the Australian Dollar Exchange RateHigher terms of trade generally associated with AUD appreciation; examples iron ore, natural gas, agricultural products; AUD tends to rise with global equities
  5. 5.Bank of Canada – Staff Analytical Note 2016-2: Predictive ability of commodity prices for the Canadian dollarEnergy and non-energy commodity prices help explain CAD-USD moves; the USD multilateral factor has stronger predictive ability

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