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Peristiwa geopolitik dan risiko: bagaimana bersikap

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No one can reliably predict geopolitical events or the market's reaction. Federal Reserve researchers built a news-based geopolitical risk index and found that higher risk foreshadows lower investment and employment.

  • Shocks travel through oil (EIA lists embargoes and wars as past supply shocks), gold (risk and uncertainty) and flight to safety.
  • Real example (RBA): on 9 March 2020 AUD/USD fell from 0.65 to 0.63 within minutes – about 200 pips, or $200 on a 0.1-lot trade, 20% of a $1,000 account.
  • A stop price is not a guaranteed execution price (SEC).
  • Plan: check exposure, trade smaller, verify news, mind weekend gaps – not trading is also a decision.

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  1. 1.AUD/USD falls from 0.6500 to 0.6300 and you hold 0.1 lot ($1 per pip). What is the loss?

  2. 2.During a fast market, a stop-loss order…

  3. 3.Breaking news of a military escalation hits. Which response matches the lesson?

Sumber

Setiap fakta dalam pelajaran ini didukung oleh sumber di bawah.

  1. 1.Federal Reserve – IFDP: Measuring Geopolitical Risk (Caldara & Iacoviello)News-based geopolitical risk index; higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment
  2. 2.U.S. EIA – Oil and petroleum products explained: prices and outlookGeopolitical events such as the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo and the Persian Gulf War caused major oil supply shocks
  3. 3.World Gold Council – Gold Return Attribution Model (gold drivers)Risk & uncertainty is one of the WGC's gold driver categories
  4. 4.Reserve Bank of Australia – SMP May 2020, Box B: Recent developments in FX marketsMarch 2020: demand for USD and JPY; AUD fell from US$0.65 to US$0.63 within minutes on 9 March; bid-ask spreads widened to their highest in years and market depth declined
  5. 5.SEC Investor.gov – Investor Bulletin: Understanding Order TypesThe stop price is not a guaranteed execution price; execution can deviate significantly from the stop price

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