第 9 课 / 共 10 课4:054 出处
心理:恐惧、贪婪、报复性交易、过度交易

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People are not fully rational, and their deviations are systematic (Barber & Odean, Financial Analysts Journal).
- Fear: closing winners too early and holding losers too long (CME Group).
- Greed and overconfidence lead to excessive trading.
- Revenge trading: a bigger trade right after a loss to win it back.
- Overtrading pays costs every time and weakens expectancy.
- Regulators: the FCA found 82% of sampled CFD clients lost money; ESMA cites 74–89% of retail accounts losing.
- Fix it with written rules: small size, daily loss limit, stop after 2–3 losses, log emotions, take breaks.
快速自测
三道题。选一个答案,查看原因。
1.According to CME Group, fear of losses often makes traders…
2.What share of sampled CFD clients lost money in the FCA's review?
3.Barber & Odean link overconfidence mainly to…
出处
本课中的每个事实都有以下出处支撑。
- 1.Barber & Odean (1999), 'The Courage of Misguided Convictions', Financial Analysts Journal — CFA InstitutePeople deviate from rationality systematically; overconfidence → excessive trading; holding losers/selling winners
- 2.CME Group Education — Misconceptions of Taking LossesTraders sell winners too early and hold losers too long; fear of loss overcomes rational thinking
- 3.FCA (2016) — FCA proposes stricter rules for contract for difference products82% of clients in a representative sample of CFD firms' accounts lost money; leverage concerns
- 4.ESMA (2018) — ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs74–89% of retail accounts typically lose money on CFDs; leverage limits
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